Our side
MoneylineLEH to win
ours 88%
Projected score
18–36
COLG – LEH
2026-11-07 · 12:00 PM
Goodman Stadium · Bethlehem, PA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Colgate lead
21–19–2
· 42 meetings since 1922
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Lehigh Mountain Hawks
73 ranks
Colgate Raiders #89 rush offense
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #16 run defense
Pass game
edge Lehigh Mountain Hawks
78 ranks
Colgate Raiders #112 pass offense
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #34 pass defense
Run game
edge Lehigh Mountain Hawks
148 ranks
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #52 rush offense
Colgate Raiders #200 run defense
Pass game
edge Lehigh Mountain Hawks
203 ranks
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #15 pass offense
Colgate Raiders #218 pass defense
Colgate Raiders
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Run-heavy · 67% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 35 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Colgate Raiders
LB
Christian Magliacano
20 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#20 LB
RB
Danny Shaban
395 rush yds · 3 TD · 7 rec
#15 RB
WR
Matt Fogler
13 rec · 231 yds · 3 TD
#52 WR
DB
Tymir Wynn
14 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
#160 DB
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
RB
Luke Yoder
419 rush yds · 9 TD · 3 rec
#2 RB
DB
Luke Denny
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#269 DB
WR
Nick Palumbo
8 rec · 130 yds · 2 TD
#245 WR
DB
DJ Brown
7 tkl · 5 PD
#397 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Colgate offense vs Lehigh defense-9.9 pts
Lehigh offense vs Colgate defense+5.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment+18.7
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).