← Matchups

Villanova

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -3.6 · #224
Our numberVILL -13.5 no book has priced this game

Holy Cross

· 0-3 (0-2) · power -16.9 · #358
Our side
MoneylineVILL to win ours 20%
Projected score 32–19 VILL – HC
2026-11-14 · 12:00 PM Fitton Field · Worcester, MA Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Villanova lead 14–6 · 20 meetings since 1943
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Villanova Wildcats 73 ranks
Villanova Wildcats #54 rush offense Holy Cross Crusaders #127 run defense
Pass game even 37 ranks apart
Villanova Wildcats #82 pass offense Holy Cross Crusaders #45 pass defense
Run game edge Villanova Wildcats 192 ranks
Holy Cross Crusaders #231 rush offense Villanova Wildcats #39 run defense
Pass game edge Villanova Wildcats 188 ranks
Holy Cross Crusaders #243 pass offense Villanova Wildcats #55 pass defense
Villanova Wildcats Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control Holy Cross Crusaders Run-heavy · 65% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Villanova Wildcats
LB Omari Bursey 34 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.5 TFL #9 LB
DL Ugo Nwotite 6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #82 DL
DL Ratu Delano Navoti 5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #137 DL
DB Jamie Tyson 17 tkl · 1 INT #166 DB
Holy Cross Crusaders
LB Adam Due 27 tkl · 1.5 TFL #100 LB
DB Garrett Baldwin 12 tkl · 3 PD #180 DB
TE Drae Tyme 4 rec · 81 yds · 1 TD #48 TE
WR Myles Abernathy 10 rec · 138 yds #238 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Villanova Wildcats -3.6 -2.9 -0.6 #224
Holy Cross Crusaders -16.9 -12.0 -4.9 #358

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Villanova offense vs Holy Cross defense+2.0 pts
Holy Cross offense vs Villanova defense-11.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-11.0

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).