Our side
MoneylineVILL to win
ours 20%
Projected score
32–19
VILL – HC
2026-11-14 · 12:00 PM
Fitton Field · Worcester, MA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Villanova lead
14–6
· 20 meetings since 1943
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Villanova Wildcats
73 ranks
Villanova Wildcats #54 rush offense
Holy Cross Crusaders #127 run defense
Pass game
even
37 ranks apart
Villanova Wildcats #82 pass offense
Holy Cross Crusaders #45 pass defense
Run game
edge Villanova Wildcats
192 ranks
Holy Cross Crusaders #231 rush offense
Villanova Wildcats #39 run defense
Pass game
edge Villanova Wildcats
188 ranks
Holy Cross Crusaders #243 pass offense
Villanova Wildcats #55 pass defense
Villanova Wildcats
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Holy Cross Crusaders
Run-heavy · 65% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Villanova Wildcats
LB
Omari Bursey
34 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#9 LB
DL
Ugo Nwotite
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#82 DL
DL
Ratu Delano Navoti
5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#137 DL
DB
Jamie Tyson
17 tkl · 1 INT
#166 DB
Holy Cross Crusaders
LB
Adam Due
27 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#100 LB
DB
Garrett Baldwin
12 tkl · 3 PD
#180 DB
TE
Drae Tyme
4 rec · 81 yds · 1 TD
#48 TE
WR
Myles Abernathy
10 rec · 138 yds
#238 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Villanova offense vs Holy Cross defense+2.0 pts
Holy Cross offense vs Villanova defense-11.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-11.0
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).