Our side
MoneylineLEH to win
ours 20%
Projected score
34–20
LEH – VILL
2026-10-24 · 3:30 PM
Villanova Stadium · Philadelphia, PA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Villanova lead
13–4
· 17 meetings since 1903
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
13 ranks apart
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #52 rush offense
Villanova Wildcats #39 run defense
Pass game
even
40 ranks apart
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #15 pass offense
Villanova Wildcats #55 pass defense
Run game
even
38 ranks apart
Villanova Wildcats #54 rush offense
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #16 run defense
Pass game
edge Lehigh Mountain Hawks
48 ranks
Villanova Wildcats #82 pass offense
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #34 pass defense
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Run-heavy · 67% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 35 rush ypg
Villanova Wildcats
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
RB
Luke Yoder
419 rush yds · 9 TD · 3 rec
#2 RB
DB
Luke Denny
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#269 DB
WR
Nick Palumbo
8 rec · 130 yds · 2 TD
#245 WR
DB
DJ Brown
7 tkl · 5 PD
#397 DB
Villanova Wildcats
LB
Omari Bursey
34 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#9 LB
DL
Ugo Nwotite
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#82 DL
DL
Ratu Delano Navoti
5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#137 DL
DB
Jamie Tyson
17 tkl · 1 INT
#166 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Lehigh offense vs Villanova defense+4.9 pts
Villanova offense vs Lehigh defense-8.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment-11.1
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).