← Matchups

Lehigh

· 3-0 (2-0) · power +9.8 · #86
Our numberLEH -13.5 no book has priced this game

Villanova

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -3.6 · #224
Our side
MoneylineLEH to win ours 20%
Projected score 34–20 LEH – VILL
2026-10-24 · 3:30 PM Villanova Stadium · Philadelphia, PA Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Villanova lead 13–4 · 17 meetings since 1903
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 13 ranks apart
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #52 rush offense Villanova Wildcats #39 run defense
Pass game even 40 ranks apart
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #15 pass offense Villanova Wildcats #55 pass defense
Run game even 38 ranks apart
Villanova Wildcats #54 rush offense Lehigh Mountain Hawks #16 run defense
Pass game edge Lehigh Mountain Hawks 48 ranks
Villanova Wildcats #82 pass offense Lehigh Mountain Hawks #34 pass defense
Lehigh Mountain Hawks Run-heavy · 67% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 35 rush ypg Villanova Wildcats Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
RB Luke Yoder 419 rush yds · 9 TD · 3 rec #2 RB
DB Luke Denny 13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #269 DB
WR Nick Palumbo 8 rec · 130 yds · 2 TD #245 WR
DB DJ Brown 7 tkl · 5 PD #397 DB
Villanova Wildcats
LB Omari Bursey 34 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.5 TFL #9 LB
DL Ugo Nwotite 6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #82 DL
DL Ratu Delano Navoti 5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #137 DL
DB Jamie Tyson 17 tkl · 1 INT #166 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Lehigh Mountain Hawks +9.8 +4.2 +5.6 #86
Villanova Wildcats -3.6 -2.9 -0.6 #224

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Lehigh offense vs Villanova defense+4.9 pts
Villanova offense vs Lehigh defense-8.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment-11.1

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).