Our side
MoneylineLEH to win
ours 15%
Projected score
36–19
LEH – RICH
2026-11-14 · 2:00 PM
Robins Stadium · Richmond, VA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Richmond and Lehigh split 4 (2–2)
· 4 meetings since 2021
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Lehigh Mountain Hawks
136 ranks
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #52 rush offense
Richmond Spiders #188 run defense
Pass game
even
1 ranks apart
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #15 pass offense
Richmond Spiders #16 pass defense
Run game
edge Lehigh Mountain Hawks
167 ranks
Richmond Spiders #183 rush offense
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #16 run defense
Pass game
edge Lehigh Mountain Hawks
107 ranks
Richmond Spiders #141 pass offense
Lehigh Mountain Hawks #34 pass defense
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Run-heavy · 67% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 35 rush ypg
Richmond Spiders
Run-heavy · 62% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
RB
Luke Yoder
419 rush yds · 9 TD · 3 rec
#2 RB
DB
Luke Denny
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#269 DB
WR
Nick Palumbo
8 rec · 130 yds · 2 TD
#245 WR
DB
DJ Brown
7 tkl · 5 PD
#397 DB
Richmond Spiders
DL
Camden Byrd
7 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#32 DL
LB
Blake Houser
26 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#44 LB
DL
Daniel Sellers
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#88 DL
RB
Aziz Foster-Powell
141 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#68 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Lehigh offense vs Richmond defense+7.0 pts
Richmond offense vs Lehigh defense-8.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-3.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-13.3
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).