Our side
MoneylineVILL to win
ours 64%
Projected score
24–30
RICH – VILL
2026-11-07 · 1:00 PM
Villanova Stadium · Philadelphia, PA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Villanova lead
14–10
· 24 meetings since 1955
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Villanova Wildcats
144 ranks
Richmond Spiders #183 rush offense
Villanova Wildcats #39 run defense
Pass game
edge Villanova Wildcats
86 ranks
Richmond Spiders #141 pass offense
Villanova Wildcats #55 pass defense
Run game
edge Villanova Wildcats
134 ranks
Villanova Wildcats #54 rush offense
Richmond Spiders #188 run defense
Pass game
edge Richmond Spiders
66 ranks
Villanova Wildcats #82 pass offense
Richmond Spiders #16 pass defense
Richmond Spiders
Run-heavy · 62% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Villanova Wildcats
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Richmond Spiders
DL
Camden Byrd
7 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#32 DL
LB
Blake Houser
26 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#44 LB
DL
Daniel Sellers
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#88 DL
RB
Aziz Foster-Powell
141 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#68 RB
Villanova Wildcats
LB
Omari Bursey
34 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#9 LB
DL
Ugo Nwotite
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#82 DL
DL
Ratu Delano Navoti
5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#137 DL
DB
Jamie Tyson
17 tkl · 1 INT
#166 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Richmond offense vs Villanova defense-2.4 pts
Villanova offense vs Richmond defense-0.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+5.2
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).