Our side
MoneylineRICH to win
ours 54%
Projected score
28–30
W&M – RICH
2026-11-21 · 12:00 PM
Robins Stadium · Richmond, VA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
William & Mary lead
40–39–2
· 81 meetings since 1909
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge William & Mary Tribe
84 ranks
William & Mary Tribe #104 rush offense
Richmond Spiders #188 run defense
Pass game
edge Richmond Spiders
86 ranks
William & Mary Tribe #102 pass offense
Richmond Spiders #16 pass defense
Run game
edge Richmond Spiders
55 ranks
Richmond Spiders #183 rush offense
William & Mary Tribe #238 run defense
Pass game
edge Richmond Spiders
72 ranks
Richmond Spiders #141 pass offense
William & Mary Tribe #213 pass defense
William & Mary Tribe
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 56 rush ypg
Richmond Spiders
Run-heavy · 62% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
William & Mary Tribe
DL
Nathaniel McDonald
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#37 DL
K
Max Lipinski
8 FG · 5 XP · 29 pts
#13 K
DB
Trevon Cannon
17 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#130 DB
DB
David Roulley
14 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#157 DB
Richmond Spiders
DL
Camden Byrd
7 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#32 DL
LB
Blake Houser
26 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#44 LB
DL
Daniel Sellers
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#88 DL
RB
Aziz Foster-Powell
141 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#68 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
William & Mary offense vs Richmond defense+2.1 pts
Richmond offense vs William & Mary defense+1.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+2.0
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).