← Matchups

Abilene Christian

· 0-3 · power +0.2 · #172
Our numberLAM -0.5 no book has priced this game

Lamar

· 2-1 · power -2.1 · #202
Final ACU 14 · LAM 21 ML L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineACU to win logged live now: LAM to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 51%

Our number: ACU by 1.1 — ACU to win.

Projected score 22–23 ACU – LAM
2026-08-29 · 7:00 PM Provost Umphrey Stadium · Beaumont, TX Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Abilene Christian and Lamar split 8 (4–4) · 8 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Lamar Cardinals 61 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #98 rush offense Lamar Cardinals #37 run defense
Pass game edge Lamar Cardinals 120 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #153 pass offense Lamar Cardinals #33 pass defense
Run game edge Abilene Christian Wildcats 97 ranks
Lamar Cardinals #228 rush offense Abilene Christian Wildcats #131 run defense
Pass game edge Abilene Christian Wildcats 96 ranks
Lamar Cardinals #225 pass offense Abilene Christian Wildcats #129 pass defense
Abilene Christian Wildcats Balanced · 53% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg Lamar Cardinals Run-heavy · 61% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Abilene Christian Wildcats
DB Dillon Williams 29 tkl · 1 PD #9 DB
DB Javeon Wilcox 27 tkl · 1 INT #37 DB
DL Hudson Page 15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #76 DL
WR Cristian Driver 18 rec · 224 yds · 1 TD #46 WR
Lamar Cardinals
DB Mar Mar Evans 16 tkl · 4 PD #54 DB
TE Davin Driskell 10 rec · 99 yds · 3 TD #12 TE
DB Lanar Kelley 11 tkl · 1 INT #86 DB
DB Bryce McDonald 17 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #146 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Abilene Christian Wildcats +0.2 -3.2 +3.4 #172
Lamar Cardinals -2.1 -8.1 +6.0 #202

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Abilene Christian offense vs Lamar defense-9.2 pts
Lamar offense vs Abilene Christian defense-11.5 pts
Altitude · context only517 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.