Final
SFA 26 · ACU 7
ML W
our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineSFA to win logged
ours 29%
Our number: SFA by 2.9 — SFA to win.
Projected score
31–21
SFA – ACU
2026-09-12 · 8:00 PM
Wildcat Stadium (TX) · Abilene, TX
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Stephen F. Austin lead
9–5
· 14 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
92 ranks
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #39 rush offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #131 run defense
Pass game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
64 ranks
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #65 pass offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #129 pass defense
Run game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
90 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #98 rush offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #8 run defense
Pass game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
125 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #153 pass offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #28 pass defense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Balanced · 49% run
Ball-control
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
DB
Makai Frisby
8 tkl · 3 INT
#48 DB
K
Carlos Alvarado
6 FG · 12 XP · 30 pts
#9 K
DB
Jaiydyn Johnson
13 tkl · 3 PD
#66 DB
WR
Bugs Mortimer
8 rec · 161 yds · 2 TD
#84 WR
Abilene Christian Wildcats
DB
Dillon Williams
29 tkl · 1 PD
#9 DB
DB
Javeon Wilcox
27 tkl · 1 INT
#37 DB
DL
Hudson Page
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#76 DL
WR
Cristian Driver
18 rec · 224 yds · 1 TD
#46 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Stephen F. Austin offense vs Abilene Christian defense+2.6 pts
Abilene Christian offense vs Stephen F. Austin defense-9.9 pts
Altitude · context only431 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.