Our side
MoneylineACU to win
ours 50%
Projected score
26–26
MER – ACU
2026-09-26 · 8:00 PM
Wildcat Stadium (TX) · Abilene, TX
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Abilene Christian lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2020
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
9 ranks apart
Mercer Bears #122 rush offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #131 run defense
Pass game
edge Mercer Bears
116 ranks
Mercer Bears #13 pass offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #129 pass defense
Run game
edge Mercer Bears
80 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #98 rush offense
Mercer Bears #18 run defense
Pass game
even
34 ranks apart
Abilene Christian Wildcats #153 pass offense
Mercer Bears #187 pass defense
Mercer Bears
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Mercer Bears
DB
Cameron Goggins
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#70 DB
WR
Brayden Smith
17 rec · 284 yds · 1 TD
#66 WR
LB
Jyarius Carter
23 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#73 LB
DB
Justin Ferguson
10 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#151 DB
Abilene Christian Wildcats
DB
Dillon Williams
29 tkl · 1 PD
#9 DB
DB
Javeon Wilcox
27 tkl · 1 INT
#37 DB
DL
Hudson Page
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#76 DL
WR
Cristian Driver
18 rec · 224 yds · 1 TD
#46 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Mercer offense vs Abilene Christian defense-3.8 pts
Abilene Christian offense vs Mercer defense-4.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment+2.6
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 934 mi
Altitude · context only384 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.