Our side
MoneylineACU to win
ours 41%
Projected score
28–24
ACU – UNA
2026-10-17 · 7:00 PM
Braly Stadium · Florence, AL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Abilene Christian lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Abilene Christian Wildcats
97 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #98 rush offense
North Alabama Lions #195 run defense
Pass game
edge Abilene Christian Wildcats
107 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #153 pass offense
North Alabama Lions #260 pass defense
Run game
even
6 ranks apart
North Alabama Lions #125 rush offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #131 run defense
Pass game
edge Abilene Christian Wildcats
81 ranks
North Alabama Lions #210 pass offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #129 pass defense
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg
North Alabama Lions
Run-heavy · 63% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Abilene Christian Wildcats
DB
Dillon Williams
29 tkl · 1 PD
#9 DB
DB
Javeon Wilcox
27 tkl · 1 INT
#37 DB
DL
Hudson Page
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#76 DL
WR
Cristian Driver
18 rec · 224 yds · 1 TD
#46 WR
North Alabama Lions
DB
Tae Martin
23 tkl · 4 PD
#11 DB
DL
Avery Howard
17 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#20 DL
WR
Xavier Johnson
19 rec · 386 yds · 2 TD
#14 WR
DL
Cayden Adkins
11 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#29 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Abilene Christian offense vs North Alabama defense+0.4 pts
North Alabama offense vs Abilene Christian defense-7.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment-5.4
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 711 mi
Altitude · context only358 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.