Our side
MoneylineAPSU to win
ours 75%
Projected score
21–32
ACU – APSU
2026-11-14 · 2:00 PM
Fortera Stadium · Clarksville, TN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Abilene Christian lead
2–0
· 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
3 ranks apart
Abilene Christian Wildcats #98 rush offense
Austin Peay Governors #101 run defense
Pass game
edge Austin Peay Governors
90 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #153 pass offense
Austin Peay Governors #63 pass defense
Run game
edge Austin Peay Governors
109 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #22 rush offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #131 run defense
Pass game
edge Austin Peay Governors
101 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #28 pass offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #129 pass defense
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg
Austin Peay Governors
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Abilene Christian Wildcats
DB
Dillon Williams
29 tkl · 1 PD
#9 DB
DB
Javeon Wilcox
27 tkl · 1 INT
#37 DB
DL
Hudson Page
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#76 DL
WR
Cristian Driver
18 rec · 224 yds · 1 TD
#46 WR
Austin Peay Governors
DL
Demoris Jenkins
8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#55 DL
WR
Denver Harper
7 rec · 256 yds · 4 TD
#45 WR
DB
Trevor Hardy
21 tkl · 1 PD
#100 DB
DL
Malik Denkins
7 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#210 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Abilene Christian offense vs Austin Peay defense-5.9 pts
Austin Peay offense vs Abilene Christian defense-0.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+8.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 757 mi
Altitude · context only377 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.