Our side
MoneylineACU to win
ours 82%
Projected score
17–32
EKU – ACU
2026-11-21 · 2:00 PM
Wildcat Stadium (TX) · Abilene, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Abilene Christian lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 2021
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Abilene Christian Wildcats
61 ranks
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #192 rush offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #131 run defense
Pass game
edge Abilene Christian Wildcats
124 ranks
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #253 pass offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #129 pass defense
Run game
edge Abilene Christian Wildcats
84 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #98 rush offense
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #182 run defense
Pass game
edge Eastern Kentucky Colonels
99 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #153 pass offense
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #54 pass defense
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Run-heavy · 64% run
Ball-control
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
LB
Cam Jessee
23 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#42 LB
DB
Derek Taylor
24 tkl
#137 DB
RB
Brady Hensley
225 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#62 RB
DB
Jeffrey Kinley
19 tkl · 1 PD
#266 DB
Abilene Christian Wildcats
DB
Dillon Williams
29 tkl · 1 PD
#9 DB
DB
Javeon Wilcox
27 tkl · 1 INT
#37 DB
DL
Hudson Page
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#76 DL
WR
Cristian Driver
18 rec · 224 yds · 1 TD
#46 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Eastern Kentucky offense vs Abilene Christian defense-12.8 pts
Abilene Christian offense vs Eastern Kentucky defense-0.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment+15.6
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 943 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.