← Matchups

Morehead State

· 1-2 · power -15.1 · #345
Our numberAPSU -24.3 no book has priced this game

Austin Peay

· 2-1 · power +5.6 · #117
Final MORE 7 · APSU 63 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineAPSU to win logged ours 91%

Our number: APSU by 22.9 — APSU to win.

Projected score 18–43 MORE – APSU
2026-09-12 · 5:00 PM Fortera Stadium · Clarksville, TN Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Austin Peay lead 5–1 · 6 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Austin Peay Governors 149 ranks
Morehead State Eagles #250 rush offense Austin Peay Governors #101 run defense
Pass game even 31 ranks apart
Morehead State Eagles #94 pass offense Austin Peay Governors #63 pass defense
Run game edge Austin Peay Governors 241 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #22 rush offense Morehead State Eagles #263 run defense
Pass game edge Austin Peay Governors 150 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #28 pass offense Morehead State Eagles #178 pass defense
Morehead State Eagles Balanced · 55% run Ball-control Austin Peay Governors Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Morehead State Eagles
DB Tazion McQueen 10 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #96 DB
DB Sidney Webb 4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #125 DB
DB Isaiah Watts 3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #148 DB
WR Cross Watson 4 rec · 132 yds · 3 TD #207 WR
Austin Peay Governors
DL Demoris Jenkins 8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #55 DL
WR Denver Harper 7 rec · 256 yds · 4 TD #45 WR
DB Trevor Hardy 21 tkl · 1 PD #100 DB
DL Malik Denkins 7 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #210 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Morehead State Eagles -15.1 -2.7 -12.4 #345
Austin Peay Governors +5.6 +2.8 +2.7 #117

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Morehead State offense vs Austin Peay defense-5.5 pts
Austin Peay offense vs Morehead State defense+15.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.