Our side
MoneylineAPSU to win
ours 83%
Projected score
18–36
UTM – APSU
2026-09-26 · 2:00 PM
Fortera Stadium · Clarksville, TN
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
UT Martin lead
14–3
· 17 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Austin Peay Governors
98 ranks
UT Martin Skyhawks #199 rush offense
Austin Peay Governors #101 run defense
Pass game
edge Austin Peay Governors
45 ranks
UT Martin Skyhawks #108 pass offense
Austin Peay Governors #63 pass defense
Run game
edge Austin Peay Governors
63 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #22 rush offense
UT Martin Skyhawks #85 run defense
Pass game
edge Austin Peay Governors
220 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #28 pass offense
UT Martin Skyhawks #248 pass defense
UT Martin Skyhawks
Run-heavy · 63% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg
Austin Peay Governors
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UT Martin Skyhawks
P
Max Zuluaga
8 punts · 51.4 yd avg
#1 P
DB
Trey Cotton
23 tkl · 1 INT
#12 DB
DL
Chris Wilson
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#78 DL
DB
Jamal Mayers
12 tkl · 3 PD
#73 DB
Austin Peay Governors
DL
Demoris Jenkins
8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#55 DL
WR
Denver Harper
7 rec · 256 yds · 4 TD
#45 WR
DB
Trevor Hardy
21 tkl · 1 PD
#100 DB
DL
Malik Denkins
7 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#210 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UT Martin offense vs Austin Peay defense-9.5 pts
Austin Peay offense vs UT Martin defense+4.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment+17.0
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).