← Matchups

Austin Peay

· 2-1 · power +5.6 · #117
Our numberAPSU -21.3 no book has priced this game

West Georgia

· 0-3 · power -14.4 · #339
Our side
MoneylineAPSU to win ours 9%
Projected score 37–16 APSU – WGA
2026-10-17 · 2:00 PM University Stadium (GA) · Carrollton, GA Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Austin Peay lead 2–0 · 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 19 ranks apart
Austin Peay Governors #22 rush offense West Georgia Wolves #3 run defense
Pass game edge Austin Peay Governors 79 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #28 pass offense West Georgia Wolves #107 pass defense
Run game even 16 ranks apart
West Georgia Wolves #85 rush offense Austin Peay Governors #101 run defense
Pass game edge Austin Peay Governors 144 ranks
West Georgia Wolves #207 pass offense Austin Peay Governors #63 pass defense
Austin Peay Governors Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg West Georgia Wolves Balanced · 58% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Austin Peay Governors
DL Demoris Jenkins 8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #55 DL
WR Denver Harper 7 rec · 256 yds · 4 TD #45 WR
DB Trevor Hardy 21 tkl · 1 PD #100 DB
DL Malik Denkins 7 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #210 DL
West Georgia Wolves
DL Dalton Epps 12 tkl · 3.0 TFL #291 DL
LB Chidu Bekee 19 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #164 LB
LB Andrew Ruffin 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #174 LB
WR T.J. Lockley 12 rec · 120 yds · 1 TD #252 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Austin Peay Governors +5.6 +2.8 +2.7 #117
West Georgia Wolves -14.4 -10.7 -3.7 #339

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Austin Peay offense vs West Georgia defense+6.6 pts
West Georgia offense vs Austin Peay defense-13.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-3.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment-17.9

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).