Our side
MoneylineAPSU to win
ours 92%
Projected score
15–38
EKU – APSU
2026-11-07 · 5:00 PM
Fortera Stadium · Clarksville, TN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Eastern Kentucky lead
11–5
· 16 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Austin Peay Governors
91 ranks
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #192 rush offense
Austin Peay Governors #101 run defense
Pass game
edge Austin Peay Governors
190 ranks
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #253 pass offense
Austin Peay Governors #63 pass defense
Run game
edge Austin Peay Governors
160 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #22 rush offense
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #182 run defense
Pass game
even
26 ranks apart
Austin Peay Governors #28 pass offense
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #54 pass defense
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Run-heavy · 64% run
Ball-control
Austin Peay Governors
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
LB
Cam Jessee
23 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#42 LB
DB
Derek Taylor
24 tkl
#137 DB
RB
Brady Hensley
225 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#62 RB
DB
Jeffrey Kinley
19 tkl · 1 PD
#266 DB
Austin Peay Governors
DL
Demoris Jenkins
8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#55 DL
WR
Denver Harper
7 rec · 256 yds · 4 TD
#45 WR
DB
Trevor Hardy
21 tkl · 1 PD
#100 DB
DL
Malik Denkins
7 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#210 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Eastern Kentucky offense vs Austin Peay defense-12.2 pts
Austin Peay offense vs Eastern Kentucky defense+5.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+21.3
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.