Our side
MoneylineAPSU to win
ours 29%
Projected score
35–26
APSU – CARK
2026-11-21 · 5:00 PM
Estes Stadium · Conway, AR
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Central Arkansas lead
4–2
· 6 meetings since 2019
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Austin Peay Governors
146 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #22 rush offense
Central Arkansas Bears #168 run defense
Pass game
edge Austin Peay Governors
210 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #28 pass offense
Central Arkansas Bears #238 pass defense
Run game
even
42 ranks apart
Central Arkansas Bears #143 rush offense
Austin Peay Governors #101 run defense
Pass game
edge Austin Peay Governors
122 ranks
Central Arkansas Bears #185 pass offense
Austin Peay Governors #63 pass defense
Austin Peay Governors
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg
Central Arkansas Bears
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Austin Peay Governors
DL
Demoris Jenkins
8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#55 DL
WR
Denver Harper
7 rec · 256 yds · 4 TD
#45 WR
DB
Trevor Hardy
21 tkl · 1 PD
#100 DB
DL
Malik Denkins
7 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#210 DL
Central Arkansas Bears
DB
Bryson Adamoh
5 tkl · 3 PD · 3 INT
#6 DB
LB
Ashtyn Williams
28 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#70 LB
DL
Jakobe Shell
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#129 DL
DL
Trevion Traylor
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#138 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Austin Peay offense vs Central Arkansas defense+9.4 pts
Central Arkansas offense vs Austin Peay defense-0.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment-7.8
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).