Final
IDHO 34 · CP 38
ML W
our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineCP to win logged
ours 52%
Our number: CP by 3.3 — CP to win.
Projected score
29–30
IDHO – CP
2026-08-28 · 10:00 PM
Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium · San Luis Obispo, CA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Idaho lead
5–0
· 5 meetings since 1996
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Idaho Vandals
160 ranks
Idaho Vandals #41 rush offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #201 run defense
Pass game
even
43 ranks apart
Idaho Vandals #93 pass offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #136 pass defense
Run game
edge Idaho Vandals
92 ranks
Cal Poly Mustangs #185 rush offense
Idaho Vandals #93 run defense
Pass game
edge Cal Poly Mustangs
100 ranks
Cal Poly Mustangs #114 pass offense
Idaho Vandals #214 pass defense
Idaho Vandals
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
Cal Poly Mustangs
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Paul Petrino · 17-20 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Idaho Vandals
WR
Tony Harste
13 rec · 233 yds · 2 TD
#67 WR
DB
Khaled Rawls
20 tkl · 1 PD
#172 DB
LB
Cruz Hepburn
24 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#107 LB
LB
Ryder Bordner
17 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#160 LB
Cal Poly Mustangs
LB
Mikey D'Amato
36 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#27 LB
WR
Tayvion McCoy
20 rec · 249 yds · 1 TD
#56 WR
P
Dean Scrivner
9 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#11 P
WR
Fidel Pitts
14 rec · 212 yds · 2 TD
#77 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Idaho offense vs Cal Poly defense+4.1 pts
Cal Poly offense vs Idaho defense+2.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 812 mi
Altitude · context only716 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.