Our side
MoneylineCP to win
ours 75%
Projected score
24–36
USD – CP
2026-09-19 · 8:00 PM
Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium · San Luis Obispo, CA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Cal Poly lead
9–2
· 11 meetings since 2012
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
23 ranks apart
San Diego Toreros #178 rush offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #201 run defense
Pass game
even
16 ranks apart
San Diego Toreros #120 pass offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #136 pass defense
Run game
edge San Diego Toreros
158 ranks
Cal Poly Mustangs #185 rush offense
San Diego Toreros #27 run defense
Pass game
edge Cal Poly Mustangs
97 ranks
Cal Poly Mustangs #114 pass offense
San Diego Toreros #211 pass defense
San Diego Toreros
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Cal Poly Mustangs
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
San Diego Toreros
DB
Dillon Kellner
6 tkl · 1 PD
#347 DB
WR
Cole Monach
8 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD
#271 WR
TE
Carter Pruitt
4 rec · 50 yds
#127 TE
RB
Omar Mbakwe
102 rush yds · 1 TD · 1 rec
#278 RB
Cal Poly Mustangs
LB
Mikey D'Amato
36 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#27 LB
WR
Tayvion McCoy
20 rec · 249 yds · 1 TD
#56 WR
P
Dean Scrivner
9 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#11 P
WR
Fidel Pitts
14 rec · 212 yds · 2 TD
#77 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
San Diego offense vs Cal Poly defense-1.2 pts
Cal Poly offense vs San Diego defense+7.8 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.