← Matchups

Cal Poly

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -4.8 · #243
Our numberEWU -4.2 no book has priced this game

Eastern Washington

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -3.0 · #215
Our side
MoneylineEWU to win ours 59%
Projected score 27–31 CP – EWU
2026-09-26 · 7:00 PM Roos Field · Cheney, WA Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Eastern Washington lead 10–2 · 12 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 41 ranks apart
Cal Poly Mustangs #185 rush offense Eastern Washington Eagles #144 run defense
Pass game even 11 ranks apart
Cal Poly Mustangs #114 pass offense Eastern Washington Eagles #125 pass defense
Run game even 17 ranks apart
Eastern Washington Eagles #184 rush offense Cal Poly Mustangs #201 run defense
Pass game edge Cal Poly Mustangs 102 ranks
Eastern Washington Eagles #238 pass offense Cal Poly Mustangs #136 pass defense
Cal Poly Mustangs Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg Eastern Washington Eagles Balanced · 48% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 74 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Cal Poly Mustangs
LB Mikey D'Amato 36 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #27 LB
WR Tayvion McCoy 20 rec · 249 yds · 1 TD #56 WR
P Dean Scrivner 9 punts · 45.4 yd avg #11 P
WR Fidel Pitts 14 rec · 212 yds · 2 TD #77 WR
Eastern Washington Eagles
DB Bryce Smith 30 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #5 DB
DL Ben Voigtlaender 14 tkl · 2.5 TFL #40 DL
LB Myles Mayovsky 33 tkl · 1.0 TFL #33 LB
WR Wesley Garrett 18 rec · 235 yds · 2 TD #42 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Cal Poly Mustangs -4.8 -1.7 -3.1 #243
Eastern Washington Eagles -3.0 -0.3 -2.7 #215

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Cal Poly offense vs Eastern Washington defense+0.9 pts
Eastern Washington offense vs Cal Poly defense+2.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment+4.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 857 mi
Altitude · context only667 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.