Our side
MoneylineCP to win
ours 63%
Projected score
29–34
WEB – CP
2026-10-03 · 8:00 PM
Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium · San Luis Obispo, CA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Weber State lead
9–4
· 13 meetings since 2006
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
36 ranks apart
Weber State Wildcats #165 rush offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #201 run defense
Pass game
edge Cal Poly Mustangs
113 ranks
Weber State Wildcats #249 pass offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #136 pass defense
Run game
edge Cal Poly Mustangs
62 ranks
Cal Poly Mustangs #185 rush offense
Weber State Wildcats #247 run defense
Pass game
even
23 ranks apart
Cal Poly Mustangs #114 pass offense
Weber State Wildcats #137 pass defense
Weber State Wildcats
Balanced · 58% run
Ball-control
Cal Poly Mustangs
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Weber State Wildcats
WR
Noah Kjar
22 rec · 385 yds · 6 TD
#2 WR
LB
Teni Worthen
25 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#52 LB
LB
Zach Smith
10 tkl
#59 LB
P
Henry Way
13 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#13 P
Cal Poly Mustangs
LB
Mikey D'Amato
36 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#27 LB
WR
Tayvion McCoy
20 rec · 249 yds · 1 TD
#56 WR
P
Dean Scrivner
9 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#11 P
WR
Fidel Pitts
14 rec · 212 yds · 2 TD
#77 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Weber State offense vs Cal Poly defense+6.5 pts
Cal Poly offense vs Weber State defense+8.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+4.6
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 624 mi
Altitude · context only1,366 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.