Our side
MoneylineIDST to win
ours 83%
Projected score
22–37
CP – IDST
2026-10-10 · 6:00 PM
ICCU Dome · Pocatello, ID
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Cal Poly lead
7–6
· 13 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Idaho State Bengals
119 ranks
Cal Poly Mustangs #185 rush offense
Idaho State Bengals #66 run defense
Pass game
edge Cal Poly Mustangs
96 ranks
Cal Poly Mustangs #114 pass offense
Idaho State Bengals #210 pass defense
Run game
edge Idaho State Bengals
93 ranks
Idaho State Bengals #108 rush offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #201 run defense
Pass game
edge Idaho State Bengals
64 ranks
Idaho State Bengals #72 pass offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #136 pass defense
Cal Poly Mustangs
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Idaho State Bengals
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Cal Poly Mustangs
LB
Mikey D'Amato
36 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#27 LB
WR
Tayvion McCoy
20 rec · 249 yds · 1 TD
#56 WR
P
Dean Scrivner
9 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#11 P
WR
Fidel Pitts
14 rec · 212 yds · 2 TD
#77 WR
Idaho State Bengals
K
Mason Lindberg
7 FG · 15 XP · 36 pts
#1 K
DL
Trehsyn Fesili
20 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#14 DL
DL
Collin Lewis
10 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#44 DL
LB
Nathan Reynolds
33 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#32 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Cal Poly offense vs Idaho State defense-3.0 pts
Idaho State offense vs Cal Poly defense+8.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment+14.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 684 mi
Altitude · context only1,306 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.