Our side
MoneylineCP to win
ours 42%
Projected score
28–25
CP – UNCO
2026-10-17 · 8:00 PM
Nottingham Field · Greeley, CO
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Cal Poly lead
8–1
· 9 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
9 ranks apart
Cal Poly Mustangs #185 rush offense
Northern Colorado Bears #194 run defense
Pass game
even
12 ranks apart
Cal Poly Mustangs #114 pass offense
Northern Colorado Bears #102 pass defense
Run game
even
15 ranks apart
Northern Colorado Bears #216 rush offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #201 run defense
Pass game
edge Cal Poly Mustangs
60 ranks
Northern Colorado Bears #196 pass offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #136 pass defense
Cal Poly Mustangs
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Northern Colorado Bears
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Cal Poly Mustangs
LB
Mikey D'Amato
36 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#27 LB
WR
Tayvion McCoy
20 rec · 249 yds · 1 TD
#56 WR
P
Dean Scrivner
9 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#11 P
WR
Fidel Pitts
14 rec · 212 yds · 2 TD
#77 WR
Northern Colorado Bears
DB
Franky Morales
18 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#91 DB
DL
Dominic Butts
10 tkl · 4.0 TFL
#122 DL
DL
Blake Weslin
8 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#192 DL
DL
Ezra Ekuban
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#226 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Cal Poly offense vs Northern Colorado defense+0.3 pts
Northern Colorado offense vs Cal Poly defense-4.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment-2.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 938 mi
Altitude · context only1,371 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.