Our side
MoneylineCP to win
ours 75%
Projected score
22–33
UTU – CP
2026-10-24 · 5:00 PM
Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium · San Luis Obispo, CA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Cal Poly lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2009
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
27 ranks apart
Utah Tech Trailblazers #174 rush offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #201 run defense
Pass game
edge Cal Poly Mustangs
94 ranks
Utah Tech Trailblazers #230 pass offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #136 pass defense
Run game
even
29 ranks apart
Cal Poly Mustangs #185 rush offense
Utah Tech Trailblazers #214 run defense
Pass game
even
40 ranks apart
Cal Poly Mustangs #114 pass offense
Utah Tech Trailblazers #154 pass defense
Utah Tech Trailblazers
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
Cal Poly Mustangs
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Utah Tech Trailblazers
DB
Jeremiah Jimoh
19 tkl · 3 PD
#40 DB
DB
Quincy Lejay
22 tkl · 1 PD
#45 DB
P
Ryan Marks
17 punts · 46.3 yd avg
#7 P
DB
Brevin Czosnyka
17 tkl
#314 DB
Cal Poly Mustangs
LB
Mikey D'Amato
36 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#27 LB
WR
Tayvion McCoy
20 rec · 249 yds · 1 TD
#56 WR
P
Dean Scrivner
9 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#11 P
WR
Fidel Pitts
14 rec · 212 yds · 2 TD
#77 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Utah Tech offense vs Cal Poly defense-3.5 pts
Cal Poly offense vs Utah Tech defense+1.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment+8.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 415 mi
Altitude · context only772 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.