Our side
MoneylineNAU to win
ours 48%
Projected score
30–29
NAU – CP
2026-11-07 · 5:00 PM
Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium · San Luis Obispo, CA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Northern Arizona lead
9–1
· 10 meetings since 1935
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
72 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #129 rush offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #201 run defense
Pass game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
60 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #76 pass offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #136 pass defense
Run game
edge Cal Poly Mustangs
67 ranks
Cal Poly Mustangs #185 rush offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #252 run defense
Pass game
edge Cal Poly Mustangs
67 ranks
Cal Poly Mustangs #114 pass offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #181 pass defense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Cal Poly Mustangs
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
DB
Deliyon Freeman
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#33 DB
DB
Jahaad Fort
16 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#43 DB
DB
Shoes Brinkley
27 tkl · 1 PD
#60 DB
LB
Jaiden Letua
25 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#43 LB
Cal Poly Mustangs
LB
Mikey D'Amato
36 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#27 LB
WR
Tayvion McCoy
20 rec · 249 yds · 1 TD
#56 WR
P
Dean Scrivner
9 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#11 P
WR
Fidel Pitts
14 rec · 212 yds · 2 TD
#77 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Northern Arizona offense vs Cal Poly defense+4.8 pts
Cal Poly offense vs Northern Arizona defense-0.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment-2.3
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 508 mi
Altitude · context only2,021 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.