Our side
MoneylineUCD to win
ours 81%
Projected score
22–37
CP – UCD
2026-11-21 · 4:00 PM
UC Davis Health Stadium · Davis, CA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
UC Davis lead
15–5
· 20 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Cal Poly Mustangs
57 ranks
Cal Poly Mustangs #185 rush offense
UC Davis Aggies #242 run defense
Pass game
even
2 ranks apart
Cal Poly Mustangs #114 pass offense
UC Davis Aggies #112 pass defense
Run game
edge UC Davis Aggies
159 ranks
UC Davis Aggies #42 rush offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #201 run defense
Pass game
edge UC Davis Aggies
95 ranks
UC Davis Aggies #41 pass offense
Cal Poly Mustangs #136 pass defense
Cal Poly Mustangs
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
UC Davis Aggies
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 37 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Cal Poly Mustangs
LB
Mikey D'Amato
36 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#27 LB
WR
Tayvion McCoy
20 rec · 249 yds · 1 TD
#56 WR
P
Dean Scrivner
9 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#11 P
WR
Fidel Pitts
14 rec · 212 yds · 2 TD
#77 WR
UC Davis Aggies
WR
Samuel Gbatu Jr.
22 rec · 296 yds · 3 TD
#18 WR
DL
Jaden Few
13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#85 DL
RB
Jordan Fisher
148 rush yds · 3 TD · 9 rec
#39 RB
DB
Teeg Slone
5 tkl · 1 INT
#178 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Cal Poly offense vs UC Davis defense-3.2 pts
UC Davis offense vs Cal Poly defense+8.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+15.3
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.