← Matchups

Montana State

· 3-0 · power +20.4 · #35
Our numberMTST -24.0 no book has priced this game

Eastern Washington

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -3.0 · #215
Our side
MoneylineMTST to win ours 7%
Projected score 41–17 MTST – EWU
2026-10-17 · 7:00 PM Roos Field · Cheney, WA Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Eastern Washington lead 12–7 · 19 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Montana State Bobcats 128 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #16 rush offense Eastern Washington Eagles #144 run defense
Pass game edge Montana State Bobcats 108 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #17 pass offense Eastern Washington Eagles #125 pass defense
Run game edge Montana State Bobcats 61 ranks
Eastern Washington Eagles #184 rush offense Montana State Bobcats #123 run defense
Pass game edge Montana State Bobcats 218 ranks
Eastern Washington Eagles #238 pass offense Montana State Bobcats #20 pass defense
Montana State Bobcats Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg Eastern Washington Eagles Balanced · 48% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 74 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Montana State Bobcats
WR Dane Steel 13 rec · 264 yds · 3 TD #31 WR
K Myles Sansted 5 FG · 14 XP · 29 pts #12 K
RB Adam Jones 198 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec #40 RB
WR Taco Dowler 16 rec · 180 yds · 1 TD #107 WR
Eastern Washington Eagles
DB Bryce Smith 30 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #5 DB
DL Ben Voigtlaender 14 tkl · 2.5 TFL #40 DL
LB Myles Mayovsky 33 tkl · 1.0 TFL #33 LB
WR Wesley Garrett 18 rec · 235 yds · 2 TD #42 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Montana State Bobcats +20.4 +11.0 +9.4 #35
Eastern Washington Eagles -3.0 -0.3 -2.7 #215

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Montana State offense vs Eastern Washington defense+13.6 pts
Eastern Washington offense vs Montana State defense-9.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment-21.4
Altitude · context only754 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 8 more days rest

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.