← Matchups

Lamar

· 2-1 · power -2.1 · #202

Our numberIDHO -2.0 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Idaho

· 0-3 (0-1) · power -2.9 · #214

Final LAM 23 · IDHO 17 ML L our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineIDHO to win logged ours 54%

Our number: IDHO by 6.7 — IDHO to win.

Projected score 25–27 LAM – IDHO

2026-09-12 · 4:00 PM Kibbie Dome · Moscow, ID Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Idaho lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2023

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge Idaho Vandals ~~135 ranks~~

Lamar Cardinals #228 rush offense Idaho Vandals #93 run defense

Pass game even ~~11 ranks apart~~

Lamar Cardinals #225 pass offense Idaho Vandals #214 pass defense

Run game even ~~4 ranks apart~~

Idaho Vandals #41 rush offense Lamar Cardinals #37 run defense

Pass game edge Lamar Cardinals ~~60 ranks~~

Idaho Vandals #93 pass offense Lamar Cardinals #33 pass defense

Lamar Cardinals Run-heavy · 61% run Ball-control Idaho Vandals Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg

Paul Petrino · 17-20 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Lamar Cardinals

DB Mar Mar Evans 16 tkl · 4 PD #54 DB

TE Davin Driskell 10 rec · 99 yds · 3 TD #12 TE

DB Lanar Kelley 11 tkl · 1 INT #86 DB

DB Bryce McDonald 17 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #146 DB

Idaho Vandals

WR Tony Harste 13 rec · 233 yds · 2 TD #67 WR

DB Khaled Rawls 20 tkl · 1 PD #172 DB

LB Cruz Hepburn 24 tkl · 1.0 TFL #107 LB

LB Ryder Bordner 17 tkl · 1.5 TFL #160 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Lamar Cardinals	-2.1	-8.1	+6.0	#202
Idaho Vandals	-2.9	+1.0	-4.0	#214

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Lamar offense vs Idaho defense-4.1 pts

Idaho offense vs Lamar defense-4.9 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,683 mi

Altitude · context only797 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.