Our side
MoneylineMTST to win
ours 6%
Projected score
42–17
MTST – IDHO
2026-10-02 · 10:30 PM
Kibbie Dome · Moscow, ID
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Montana State lead
13–12–1
· 26 meetings since 1926
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Montana State Bobcats
77 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #16 rush offense
Idaho Vandals #93 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
197 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #17 pass offense
Idaho Vandals #214 pass defense
Run game
edge Idaho Vandals
82 ranks
Idaho Vandals #41 rush offense
Montana State Bobcats #123 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
73 ranks
Idaho Vandals #93 pass offense
Montana State Bobcats #20 pass defense
Montana State Bobcats
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg
Idaho Vandals
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
Paul Petrino · 17-20 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Montana State Bobcats
WR
Dane Steel
13 rec · 264 yds · 3 TD
#31 WR
K
Myles Sansted
5 FG · 14 XP · 29 pts
#12 K
RB
Adam Jones
198 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec
#40 RB
WR
Taco Dowler
16 rec · 180 yds · 1 TD
#107 WR
Idaho Vandals
WR
Tony Harste
13 rec · 233 yds · 2 TD
#67 WR
DB
Khaled Rawls
20 tkl · 1 PD
#172 DB
LB
Cruz Hepburn
24 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#107 LB
LB
Ryder Bordner
17 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#160 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Montana State offense vs Idaho defense+14.9 pts
Idaho offense vs Montana State defense-8.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-3.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-21.3
Altitude · context only705 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.