Our side
MoneylineIDHO to win
ours 46%
Projected score
34–32
IDHO – WEB
2026-10-10 · 3:00 PM
Stewart Stadium · Ogden, UT
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Idaho lead
7–6
· 13 meetings since 1965
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Idaho Vandals
206 ranks
Idaho Vandals #41 rush offense
Weber State Wildcats #247 run defense
Pass game
even
44 ranks apart
Idaho Vandals #93 pass offense
Weber State Wildcats #137 pass defense
Run game
edge Idaho Vandals
72 ranks
Weber State Wildcats #165 rush offense
Idaho Vandals #93 run defense
Pass game
even
35 ranks apart
Weber State Wildcats #249 pass offense
Idaho Vandals #214 pass defense
Idaho Vandals
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
Weber State Wildcats
Balanced · 58% run
Ball-control
Paul Petrino · 17-20 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Idaho Vandals
WR
Tony Harste
13 rec · 233 yds · 2 TD
#67 WR
DB
Khaled Rawls
20 tkl · 1 PD
#172 DB
LB
Cruz Hepburn
24 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#107 LB
LB
Ryder Bordner
17 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#160 LB
Weber State Wildcats
WR
Noah Kjar
22 rec · 385 yds · 6 TD
#2 WR
LB
Teni Worthen
25 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#52 LB
LB
Zach Smith
10 tkl
#59 LB
P
Henry Way
13 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#13 P
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Idaho offense vs Weber State defense+10.9 pts
Weber State offense vs Idaho defense+7.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment-0.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 458 mi
Altitude · context only651 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.