← Matchups

Idaho

· 0-3 (0-1) · power -2.9 · #214
Our numberMONT -15.4 no book has priced this game

Montana

· 3-0 · power +7.5 · #97
Our side
MoneylineMONT to win ours 83%
Projected score 22–37 IDHO – MONT
2026-10-17 · 3:00 PM Washington-Grizzly Stadium · Missoula, MT Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Idaho lead 38–22–1 · 61 meetings since 1917
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Idaho Vandals 100 ranks
Idaho Vandals #41 rush offense Montana Grizzlies #141 run defense
Pass game edge Idaho Vandals 83 ranks
Idaho Vandals #93 pass offense Montana Grizzlies #176 pass defense
Run game even 2 ranks apart
Montana Grizzlies #91 rush offense Idaho Vandals #93 run defense
Pass game edge Montana Grizzlies 194 ranks
Montana Grizzlies #20 pass offense Idaho Vandals #214 pass defense
Idaho Vandals Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg Montana Grizzlies Balanced · 54% run Avg pace
Paul Petrino · 17-20 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Idaho Vandals
WR Tony Harste 13 rec · 233 yds · 2 TD #67 WR
DB Khaled Rawls 20 tkl · 1 PD #172 DB
LB Cruz Hepburn 24 tkl · 1.0 TFL #107 LB
LB Ryder Bordner 17 tkl · 1.5 TFL #160 LB
Montana Grizzlies
RB Eli Gillman 328 rush yds · 7 TD · 5 rec #4 RB
WR Brooks Davis 24 rec · 305 yds · 1 TD #36 WR
DB Brock Beaner 17 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #99 DB
LB Peyton Wing 13 tkl · 2.5 TFL #94 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Idaho Vandals -2.9 +1.0 -4.0 #214
Montana Grizzlies +7.5 +4.0 +3.6 #97

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Idaho offense vs Montana defense-2.5 pts
Montana offense vs Idaho defense+7.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+13.7

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).