Our side
MoneylineMONT to win
ours 83%
Projected score
22–37
IDHO – MONT
2026-10-17 · 3:00 PM
Washington-Grizzly Stadium · Missoula, MT
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Idaho lead
38–22–1
· 61 meetings since 1917
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Idaho Vandals
100 ranks
Idaho Vandals #41 rush offense
Montana Grizzlies #141 run defense
Pass game
edge Idaho Vandals
83 ranks
Idaho Vandals #93 pass offense
Montana Grizzlies #176 pass defense
Run game
even
2 ranks apart
Montana Grizzlies #91 rush offense
Idaho Vandals #93 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana Grizzlies
194 ranks
Montana Grizzlies #20 pass offense
Idaho Vandals #214 pass defense
Idaho Vandals
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
Montana Grizzlies
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Paul Petrino · 17-20 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Idaho Vandals
WR
Tony Harste
13 rec · 233 yds · 2 TD
#67 WR
DB
Khaled Rawls
20 tkl · 1 PD
#172 DB
LB
Cruz Hepburn
24 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#107 LB
LB
Ryder Bordner
17 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#160 LB
Montana Grizzlies
RB
Eli Gillman
328 rush yds · 7 TD · 5 rec
#4 RB
WR
Brooks Davis
24 rec · 305 yds · 1 TD
#36 WR
DB
Brock Beaner
17 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#99 DB
LB
Peyton Wing
13 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#94 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Idaho offense vs Montana defense-2.5 pts
Montana offense vs Idaho defense+7.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+13.7
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).