Our side
MoneylineIDHO to win
ours 52%
Projected score
32–33
SUU – IDHO
2026-10-24 · 5:00 PM
Kibbie Dome · Moscow, ID
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Idaho lead
3–0
· 3 meetings since 2018
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds
56 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #37 rush offense
Idaho Vandals #93 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds
147 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #67 pass offense
Idaho Vandals #214 pass defense
Run game
edge Idaho Vandals
212 ranks
Idaho Vandals #41 rush offense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #253 run defense
Pass game
even
30 ranks apart
Idaho Vandals #93 pass offense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #123 pass defense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Run-heavy · 59% run
Avg pace
Idaho Vandals
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
Paul Petrino · 17-20 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
DB
Parker Vance
18 tkl · 4 PD · 3 INT
#4 DB
TE
Joshua Acord
11 rec · 128 yds · 3 TD
#3 TE
RB
Floyd Chalk
427 rush yds · 6 TD · 4 rec
#6 RB
DL
Myles Amey
9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#103 DL
Idaho Vandals
WR
Tony Harste
13 rec · 233 yds · 2 TD
#67 WR
DB
Khaled Rawls
20 tkl · 1 PD
#172 DB
LB
Cruz Hepburn
24 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#107 LB
LB
Ryder Bordner
17 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#160 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Southern Utah offense vs Idaho defense+8.0 pts
Idaho offense vs Southern Utah defense+7.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment+2.4
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 657 mi
Altitude · context only963 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.