← Matchups

Southern Utah

· 1-2 · power -2.6 · #211
Our numberIDHO -1.0 no book has priced this game

Idaho

· 0-3 (0-1) · power -2.9 · #214
Our side
MoneylineIDHO to win ours 52%
Projected score 32–33 SUU – IDHO
2026-10-24 · 5:00 PM Kibbie Dome · Moscow, ID Indoors Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Idaho lead 3–0 · 3 meetings since 2018
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds 56 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #37 rush offense Idaho Vandals #93 run defense
Pass game edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds 147 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #67 pass offense Idaho Vandals #214 pass defense
Run game edge Idaho Vandals 212 ranks
Idaho Vandals #41 rush offense Southern Utah Thunderbirds #253 run defense
Pass game even 30 ranks apart
Idaho Vandals #93 pass offense Southern Utah Thunderbirds #123 pass defense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds Run-heavy · 59% run Avg pace Idaho Vandals Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
Paul Petrino · 17-20 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
DB Parker Vance 18 tkl · 4 PD · 3 INT #4 DB
TE Joshua Acord 11 rec · 128 yds · 3 TD #3 TE
RB Floyd Chalk 427 rush yds · 6 TD · 4 rec #6 RB
DL Myles Amey 9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL #103 DL
Idaho Vandals
WR Tony Harste 13 rec · 233 yds · 2 TD #67 WR
DB Khaled Rawls 20 tkl · 1 PD #172 DB
LB Cruz Hepburn 24 tkl · 1.0 TFL #107 LB
LB Ryder Bordner 17 tkl · 1.5 TFL #160 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Southern Utah Thunderbirds -2.6 +4.0 -6.5 #211
Idaho Vandals -2.9 +1.0 -4.0 #214

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Southern Utah offense vs Idaho defense+8.0 pts
Idaho offense vs Southern Utah defense+7.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment+2.4
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 657 mi
Altitude · context only963 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.