Our side
MoneylineUCD to win
ours 29%
Projected score
35–26
UCD – IDHO
2026-11-14 · 4:00 PM
Kibbie Dome · Moscow, ID
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
UC Davis lead
6–1
· 7 meetings since 1997
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UC Davis Aggies
51 ranks
UC Davis Aggies #42 rush offense
Idaho Vandals #93 run defense
Pass game
edge UC Davis Aggies
173 ranks
UC Davis Aggies #41 pass offense
Idaho Vandals #214 pass defense
Run game
edge Idaho Vandals
201 ranks
Idaho Vandals #41 rush offense
UC Davis Aggies #242 run defense
Pass game
even
19 ranks apart
Idaho Vandals #93 pass offense
UC Davis Aggies #112 pass defense
UC Davis Aggies
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 37 rush ypg
Idaho Vandals
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
Paul Petrino · 17-20 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UC Davis Aggies
WR
Samuel Gbatu Jr.
22 rec · 296 yds · 3 TD
#18 WR
DL
Jaden Few
13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#85 DL
RB
Jordan Fisher
148 rush yds · 3 TD · 9 rec
#39 RB
DB
Teeg Slone
5 tkl · 1 INT
#178 DB
Idaho Vandals
WR
Tony Harste
13 rec · 233 yds · 2 TD
#67 WR
DB
Khaled Rawls
20 tkl · 1 PD
#172 DB
LB
Cruz Hepburn
24 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#107 LB
LB
Ryder Bordner
17 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#160 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UC Davis offense vs Idaho defense+9.8 pts
Idaho offense vs UC Davis defense-0.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-7.7
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 615 mi
Altitude · context only788 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.