Our side
MoneylineIDST to win
ours 77%
Projected score
24–36
NAU – IDST
2026-10-03 · 8:00 PM
ICCU Dome · Pocatello, ID
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Northern Arizona lead
13–3
· 16 meetings since 1951
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Idaho State Bengals
63 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #129 rush offense
Idaho State Bengals #66 run defense
Pass game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
134 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #76 pass offense
Idaho State Bengals #210 pass defense
Run game
edge Idaho State Bengals
144 ranks
Idaho State Bengals #108 rush offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #252 run defense
Pass game
edge Idaho State Bengals
109 ranks
Idaho State Bengals #72 pass offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #181 pass defense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Idaho State Bengals
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
DB
Deliyon Freeman
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#33 DB
DB
Jahaad Fort
16 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#43 DB
DB
Shoes Brinkley
27 tkl · 1 PD
#60 DB
LB
Jaiden Letua
25 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#43 LB
Idaho State Bengals
K
Mason Lindberg
7 FG · 15 XP · 36 pts
#1 K
DL
Trehsyn Fesili
20 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#14 DL
DL
Collin Lewis
10 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#44 DL
LB
Nathan Reynolds
33 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#32 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Northern Arizona offense vs Idaho State defense+0.5 pts
Idaho State offense vs Northern Arizona defense+7.1 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+9.7
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 533 mi
Altitude · context only714 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.