Our side
MoneylineIDST to win
ours 20%
Projected score
39–26
IDST – WEB
2026-10-17 · 3:00 PM
Stewart Stadium · Ogden, UT
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Weber State lead
19–3
· 22 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Idaho State Bengals
139 ranks
Idaho State Bengals #108 rush offense
Weber State Wildcats #247 run defense
Pass game
edge Idaho State Bengals
65 ranks
Idaho State Bengals #72 pass offense
Weber State Wildcats #137 pass defense
Run game
edge Idaho State Bengals
99 ranks
Weber State Wildcats #165 rush offense
Idaho State Bengals #66 run defense
Pass game
even
39 ranks apart
Weber State Wildcats #249 pass offense
Idaho State Bengals #210 pass defense
Idaho State Bengals
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Weber State Wildcats
Balanced · 58% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Idaho State Bengals
K
Mason Lindberg
7 FG · 15 XP · 36 pts
#1 K
DL
Trehsyn Fesili
20 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#14 DL
DL
Collin Lewis
10 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#44 DL
LB
Nathan Reynolds
33 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#32 LB
Weber State Wildcats
WR
Noah Kjar
22 rec · 385 yds · 6 TD
#2 WR
LB
Teni Worthen
25 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#52 LB
LB
Zach Smith
10 tkl
#59 LB
P
Henry Way
13 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#13 P
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Idaho State offense vs Weber State defense+15.4 pts
Weber State offense vs Idaho State defense+2.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment-10.9
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).