Our side
MoneylineMTST to win
ours 21%
Projected score
36–23
MTST – IDST
2026-11-07 · 6:00 PM
ICCU Dome · Pocatello, ID
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Montana State lead
19–2–2
· 23 meetings since 1923
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Montana State Bobcats
50 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #16 rush offense
Idaho State Bengals #66 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
193 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #17 pass offense
Idaho State Bengals #210 pass defense
Run game
even
15 ranks apart
Idaho State Bengals #108 rush offense
Montana State Bobcats #123 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
52 ranks
Idaho State Bengals #72 pass offense
Montana State Bobcats #20 pass defense
Montana State Bobcats
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg
Idaho State Bengals
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Montana State Bobcats
WR
Dane Steel
13 rec · 264 yds · 3 TD
#31 WR
K
Myles Sansted
5 FG · 14 XP · 29 pts
#12 K
RB
Adam Jones
198 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec
#40 RB
WR
Taco Dowler
16 rec · 180 yds · 1 TD
#107 WR
Idaho State Bengals
K
Mason Lindberg
7 FG · 15 XP · 36 pts
#1 K
DL
Trehsyn Fesili
20 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#14 DL
DL
Collin Lewis
10 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#44 DL
LB
Nathan Reynolds
33 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#32 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Montana State offense vs Idaho State defense+9.7 pts
Idaho State offense vs Montana State defense-3.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment-11.3
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).