← Matchups

Drake

· 0-3 · power -12.8 · #324

Our numberMONT -23.9 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Montana

· 3-0 · power +7.5 · #97

Final DRKE 10 · MONT 45 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineMONT to win logged ours 91%

Our number: MONT by 19.0 — MONT to win.

Projected score 17–40 DRKE – MONT

2026-09-05 · 3:00 PM Washington-Grizzly Stadium · Missoula, MT Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Montana lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2018

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game even ~~41 ranks apart~~

Drake Bulldogs #100 rush offense Montana Grizzlies #141 run defense

Pass game edge Drake Bulldogs ~~87 ranks~~

Drake Bulldogs #89 pass offense Montana Grizzlies #176 pass defense

Run game even ~~8 ranks apart~~

Montana Grizzlies #91 rush offense Drake Bulldogs #99 run defense

Pass game edge Montana Grizzlies ~~127 ranks~~

Montana Grizzlies #20 pass offense Drake Bulldogs #147 pass defense

Drake Bulldogs Run-heavy · 69% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 34 rush ypg Montana Grizzlies Balanced · 54% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Drake Bulldogs

LB J.R. Flood 35 tkl · 0.5 TFL #37 LB

DL Tyson Shivers 10 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #77 DL

WR Willis Nofsinger 18 rec · 285 yds · 1 TD #53 WR

WR Hank Foley 14 rec · 215 yds · 1 TD #120 WR

Montana Grizzlies

RB Eli Gillman 328 rush yds · 7 TD · 5 rec #4 RB

WR Brooks Davis 24 rec · 305 yds · 1 TD #36 WR

DB Brock Beaner 17 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #99 DB

LB Peyton Wing 13 tkl · 2.5 TFL #94 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Drake Bulldogs	-12.8	-5.6	-7.2	#324
Montana Grizzlies	+7.5	+4.0	+3.6	#97

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Drake offense vs Montana defense-9.1 pts

Montana offense vs Drake defense+11.2 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,066 mi

Altitude · context only701 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.