Our side
MoneylineUCD to win
ours 51%
Projected score
29–30
MONT – UCD
2026-09-26 · 10:00 PM
UC Davis Health Stadium · Davis, CA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Montana lead
8–2
· 10 meetings since 1926
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Montana Grizzlies
151 ranks
Montana Grizzlies #91 rush offense
UC Davis Aggies #242 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana Grizzlies
92 ranks
Montana Grizzlies #20 pass offense
UC Davis Aggies #112 pass defense
Run game
edge UC Davis Aggies
99 ranks
UC Davis Aggies #42 rush offense
Montana Grizzlies #141 run defense
Pass game
edge UC Davis Aggies
135 ranks
UC Davis Aggies #41 pass offense
Montana Grizzlies #176 pass defense
Montana Grizzlies
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
UC Davis Aggies
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 37 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Montana Grizzlies
RB
Eli Gillman
328 rush yds · 7 TD · 5 rec
#4 RB
WR
Brooks Davis
24 rec · 305 yds · 1 TD
#36 WR
DB
Brock Beaner
17 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#99 DB
LB
Peyton Wing
13 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#94 LB
UC Davis Aggies
WR
Samuel Gbatu Jr.
22 rec · 296 yds · 3 TD
#18 WR
DL
Jaden Few
13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#85 DL
RB
Jordan Fisher
148 rush yds · 3 TD · 9 rec
#39 RB
DB
Teeg Slone
5 tkl · 1 INT
#178 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Montana offense vs UC Davis defense+2.5 pts
UC Davis offense vs Montana defense+2.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment+2.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 697 mi
Altitude · context only967 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.