Our side
MoneylineMONT to win
ours 30%
Projected score
33–25
MONT – NAU
2026-10-10 · 5:00 PM
J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · Flagstaff, AZ
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Montana lead
12–3
· 15 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Montana Grizzlies
161 ranks
Montana Grizzlies #91 rush offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #252 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana Grizzlies
161 ranks
Montana Grizzlies #20 pass offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #181 pass defense
Run game
even
12 ranks apart
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #129 rush offense
Montana Grizzlies #141 run defense
Pass game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
100 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #76 pass offense
Montana Grizzlies #176 pass defense
Montana Grizzlies
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Montana Grizzlies
RB
Eli Gillman
328 rush yds · 7 TD · 5 rec
#4 RB
WR
Brooks Davis
24 rec · 305 yds · 1 TD
#36 WR
DB
Brock Beaner
17 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#99 DB
LB
Peyton Wing
13 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#94 LB
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
DB
Deliyon Freeman
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#33 DB
DB
Jahaad Fort
16 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#43 DB
DB
Shoes Brinkley
27 tkl · 1 PD
#60 DB
LB
Jaiden Letua
25 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#43 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Montana offense vs Northern Arizona defense+5.5 pts
Northern Arizona offense vs Montana defense-1.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-3.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-4.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 816 mi
Altitude · context only1,126 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.