Our side
MoneylineMTST to win
ours 85%
Projected score
20–37
MONT – MTST
2026-11-21 · 2:00 PM
Bobcat Stadium (MT) · Bozeman, MT
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Montana lead
38–18–1
· 57 meetings since 1917
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
32 ranks apart
Montana Grizzlies #91 rush offense
Montana State Bobcats #123 run defense
Pass game
even
0 ranks apart
Montana Grizzlies #20 pass offense
Montana State Bobcats #20 pass defense
Run game
edge Montana State Bobcats
125 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #16 rush offense
Montana Grizzlies #141 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
159 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #17 pass offense
Montana Grizzlies #176 pass defense
Montana Grizzlies
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Montana State Bobcats
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Montana Grizzlies
RB
Eli Gillman
328 rush yds · 7 TD · 5 rec
#4 RB
WR
Brooks Davis
24 rec · 305 yds · 1 TD
#36 WR
DB
Brock Beaner
17 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#99 DB
LB
Peyton Wing
13 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#94 LB
Montana State Bobcats
WR
Dane Steel
13 rec · 264 yds · 3 TD
#31 WR
K
Myles Sansted
5 FG · 14 XP · 29 pts
#12 K
RB
Adam Jones
198 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec
#40 RB
WR
Taco Dowler
16 rec · 180 yds · 1 TD
#107 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Montana offense vs Montana State defense-5.4 pts
Montana State offense vs Montana defense+7.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment+16.1
Altitude · context only526 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.