← Matchups

Butler

· 2-1 · power -3.5 · #223
Our numberMTST -27.5 no book has priced this game

Montana State

· 3-0 · power +20.4 · #35
Final BUT 24 · MTST 51 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineMTST to win logged ours 94%

Our number: MTST by 32.8 — MTST to win.

Projected score 15–43 BUT – MTST
2026-09-05 · 8:30 PM Bobcat Stadium (MT) · Bozeman, MT Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 16 ranks apart
Butler Bulldogs #139 rush offense Montana State Bobcats #123 run defense
Pass game edge Montana State Bobcats 93 ranks
Butler Bulldogs #113 pass offense Montana State Bobcats #20 pass defense
Run game edge Montana State Bobcats 116 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #16 rush offense Butler Bulldogs #132 run defense
Pass game edge Montana State Bobcats 214 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #17 pass offense Butler Bulldogs #231 pass defense
Butler Bulldogs Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg Montana State Bobcats Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Butler Bulldogs
DL Okemdi Eze 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #316 DL
WR Nick Munson 5 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD #234 WR
DB Steven Stephany 8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #457 DB
RB Desmin Jackson 88 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #209 RB
Montana State Bobcats
WR Dane Steel 13 rec · 264 yds · 3 TD #31 WR
K Myles Sansted 5 FG · 14 XP · 29 pts #12 K
RB Adam Jones 198 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec #40 RB
WR Taco Dowler 16 rec · 180 yds · 1 TD #107 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Butler Bulldogs -3.5 -0.8 -2.7 #223
Montana State Bobcats +20.4 +11.0 +9.4 #35

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Butler offense vs Montana State defense-10.2 pts
Montana State offense vs Butler defense+13.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,319 mi
Altitude · context only1,282 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.