Our side
MoneylineMTST to win
ours 93%
Projected score
16–43
NAU – MTST
2026-09-26 · 10:30 PM
Bobcat Stadium (MT) · Bozeman, MT
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Montana State lead
10–6
· 16 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
6 ranks apart
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #129 rush offense
Montana State Bobcats #123 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
56 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #76 pass offense
Montana State Bobcats #20 pass defense
Run game
edge Montana State Bobcats
236 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #16 rush offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #252 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
164 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #17 pass offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #181 pass defense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Montana State Bobcats
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
DB
Deliyon Freeman
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#33 DB
DB
Jahaad Fort
16 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#43 DB
DB
Shoes Brinkley
27 tkl · 1 PD
#60 DB
LB
Jaiden Letua
25 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#43 LB
Montana State Bobcats
WR
Dane Steel
13 rec · 264 yds · 3 TD
#31 WR
K
Myles Sansted
5 FG · 14 XP · 29 pts
#12 K
RB
Adam Jones
198 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec
#40 RB
WR
Taco Dowler
16 rec · 180 yds · 1 TD
#107 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Northern Arizona offense vs Montana State defense-7.6 pts
Montana State offense vs Northern Arizona defense+12.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+3.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+23.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 725 mi
Altitude · context only600 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.