Our side
MoneylineMTST to win
ours 98%
Projected score
15–49
WEB – MTST
2026-10-24 · 3:00 PM
Bobcat Stadium (MT) · Bozeman, MT
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Montana State lead
14–4
· 18 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
42 ranks apart
Weber State Wildcats #165 rush offense
Montana State Bobcats #123 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
229 ranks
Weber State Wildcats #249 pass offense
Montana State Bobcats #20 pass defense
Run game
edge Montana State Bobcats
231 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #16 rush offense
Weber State Wildcats #247 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
120 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #17 pass offense
Weber State Wildcats #137 pass defense
Weber State Wildcats
Balanced · 58% run
Ball-control
Montana State Bobcats
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Weber State Wildcats
WR
Noah Kjar
22 rec · 385 yds · 6 TD
#2 WR
LB
Teni Worthen
25 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#52 LB
LB
Zach Smith
10 tkl
#59 LB
P
Henry Way
13 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#13 P
Montana State Bobcats
WR
Dane Steel
13 rec · 264 yds · 3 TD
#31 WR
K
Myles Sansted
5 FG · 14 XP · 29 pts
#12 K
RB
Adam Jones
198 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec
#40 RB
WR
Taco Dowler
16 rec · 180 yds · 1 TD
#107 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Weber State offense vs Montana State defense-5.9 pts
Montana State offense vs Weber State defense+20.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment+30.6
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).