Our side
MoneylineMTST to win
ours 3%
Projected score
42–11
MTST – UNCO
2026-11-14 · 2:00 PM
Nottingham Field · Greeley, CO
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Montana State lead
19–6
· 25 meetings since 1923
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Montana State Bobcats
178 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #16 rush offense
Northern Colorado Bears #194 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
85 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #17 pass offense
Northern Colorado Bears #102 pass defense
Run game
edge Montana State Bobcats
93 ranks
Northern Colorado Bears #216 rush offense
Montana State Bobcats #123 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
176 ranks
Northern Colorado Bears #196 pass offense
Montana State Bobcats #20 pass defense
Montana State Bobcats
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg
Northern Colorado Bears
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Montana State Bobcats
WR
Dane Steel
13 rec · 264 yds · 3 TD
#31 WR
K
Myles Sansted
5 FG · 14 XP · 29 pts
#12 K
RB
Adam Jones
198 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec
#40 RB
WR
Taco Dowler
16 rec · 180 yds · 1 TD
#107 WR
Northern Colorado Bears
DB
Franky Morales
18 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#91 DB
DL
Dominic Butts
10 tkl · 4.0 TFL
#122 DL
DL
Blake Weslin
8 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#192 DL
DL
Ezra Ekuban
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#226 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Montana State offense vs Northern Colorado defense+13.0 pts
Northern Colorado offense vs Montana State defense-17.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment-28.6
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 484 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.