Our side
MoneylineSUU to win
ours 53%
Projected score
31–32
NAU – SUU
2026-10-31 · 3:00 PM
Eccles Coliseum · Cedar City, UT
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Northern Arizona lead
10–6
· 16 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
124 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #129 rush offense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #253 run defense
Pass game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
47 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #76 pass offense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #123 pass defense
Run game
edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds
215 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #37 rush offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #252 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds
114 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #67 pass offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #181 pass defense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Run-heavy · 59% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
DB
Deliyon Freeman
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#33 DB
DB
Jahaad Fort
16 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#43 DB
DB
Shoes Brinkley
27 tkl · 1 PD
#60 DB
LB
Jaiden Letua
25 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#43 LB
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
DB
Parker Vance
18 tkl · 4 PD · 3 INT
#4 DB
TE
Joshua Acord
11 rec · 128 yds · 3 TD
#3 TE
RB
Floyd Chalk
427 rush yds · 6 TD · 4 rec
#6 RB
DL
Myles Amey
9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#103 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Northern Arizona offense vs Southern Utah defense+8.3 pts
Southern Utah offense vs Northern Arizona defense+5.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+0.1
Altitude · context only342 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.