Our side
MoneylineNAU to win
ours 70%
Projected score
28–37
WEB – NAU
2026-11-14 · 4:00 PM
J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · Flagstaff, AZ
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Northern Arizona and Weber State split 18 (9–9)
· 18 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Weber State Wildcats
87 ranks
Weber State Wildcats #165 rush offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #252 run defense
Pass game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
68 ranks
Weber State Wildcats #249 pass offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #181 pass defense
Run game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
118 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #129 rush offense
Weber State Wildcats #247 run defense
Pass game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
61 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #76 pass offense
Weber State Wildcats #137 pass defense
Weber State Wildcats
Balanced · 58% run
Ball-control
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Weber State Wildcats
WR
Noah Kjar
22 rec · 385 yds · 6 TD
#2 WR
LB
Teni Worthen
25 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#52 LB
LB
Zach Smith
10 tkl
#59 LB
P
Henry Way
13 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#13 P
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
DB
Deliyon Freeman
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#33 DB
DB
Jahaad Fort
16 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#43 DB
DB
Shoes Brinkley
27 tkl · 1 PD
#60 DB
LB
Jaiden Letua
25 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#43 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Weber State offense vs Northern Arizona defense+5.0 pts
Northern Arizona offense vs Weber State defense+11.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment+9.7
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 416 mi
Altitude · context only654 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.