← Matchups

Northeastern State

· power -13.2 · #331

Our numberUNCO -6.2 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Northern Colorado

· 0-3 (0-1) · power -10.0 · #295

Our side

MoneylineUNCO to win ours 63%

Projected score 24–30 NORT – UNCO

2026-09-19 · 8:00 PM Nottingham Field · Greeley, CO Preseason estimate

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Northern Colorado Bears Balanced · 52% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Northeastern State RiverHawks

No graded players for this team in 2025.

Northern Colorado Bears

DB Franky Morales 18 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #91 DB

DL Dominic Butts 10 tkl · 4.0 TFL #122 DL

DL Blake Weslin 8 tkl · 1.0 TFL #192 DL

DL Ezra Ekuban 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #226 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Northeastern State RiverHawks	-13.2	-5.1	-8.1	#331
Northern Colorado Bears	-10.0	-8.0	-2.0	#295

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Northeastern State offense vs Northern Colorado defense-3.1 pts

Northern Colorado offense vs Northeastern State defense+0.1 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.