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Utah Tech

· 0-3 · power -10.2 · #297
Our numberUNCO -5.7 no book has priced this game

Northern Colorado

· 0-3 (0-1) · power -10.0 · #295
Our side
MoneylineUNCO to win ours 62%
Projected score 23–29 UTU – UNCO
2026-09-26 · 8:00 PM Nottingham Field · Greeley, CO Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 20 ranks apart
Utah Tech Trailblazers #174 rush offense Northern Colorado Bears #194 run defense
Pass game edge Northern Colorado Bears 128 ranks
Utah Tech Trailblazers #230 pass offense Northern Colorado Bears #102 pass defense
Run game even 2 ranks apart
Northern Colorado Bears #216 rush offense Utah Tech Trailblazers #214 run defense
Pass game even 42 ranks apart
Northern Colorado Bears #196 pass offense Utah Tech Trailblazers #154 pass defense
Utah Tech Trailblazers Balanced · 55% run Avg pace Northern Colorado Bears Balanced · 52% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Utah Tech Trailblazers
DB Jeremiah Jimoh 19 tkl · 3 PD #40 DB
DB Quincy Lejay 22 tkl · 1 PD #45 DB
P Ryan Marks 17 punts · 46.3 yd avg #7 P
DB Brevin Czosnyka 17 tkl #314 DB
Northern Colorado Bears
DB Franky Morales 18 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #91 DB
DL Dominic Butts 10 tkl · 4.0 TFL #122 DL
DL Blake Weslin 8 tkl · 1.0 TFL #192 DL
DL Ezra Ekuban 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #226 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Utah Tech Trailblazers -10.2 -6.6 -3.6 #297
Northern Colorado Bears -10.0 -8.0 -2.0 #295

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Utah Tech offense vs Northern Colorado defense-4.6 pts
Northern Colorado offense vs Utah Tech defense-4.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+3.2
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 529 mi
Altitude · context only599 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.