Our side
MoneylineUT R to win
ours 39%
Projected score
33–28
UT R – CARK
2026-10-24 · 5:00 PM
Estes Stadium · Conway, AR
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
140 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #28 rush offense
Central Arkansas Bears #168 run defense
Pass game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
216 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #22 pass offense
Central Arkansas Bears #238 pass defense
Run game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
87 ranks
Central Arkansas Bears #143 rush offense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #56 run defense
Pass game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
173 ranks
Central Arkansas Bears #185 pass offense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #12 pass defense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Central Arkansas Bears
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
WR
Kyran Lee
18 rec · 301 yds · 2 TD
#27 WR
DB
Alijah Prosser
14 tkl · 5 PD
#68 DB
LB
Spencer Rich
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#72 LB
K
Brysen Gardner
6 FG · 9 XP · 27 pts
#16 K
Central Arkansas Bears
DB
Bryson Adamoh
5 tkl · 3 PD · 3 INT
#6 DB
LB
Ashtyn Williams
28 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#70 LB
DL
Jakobe Shell
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#129 DL
DL
Trevion Traylor
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#138 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UT Rio Grande Valley offense vs Central Arkansas defense+8.9 pts
Central Arkansas offense vs UT Rio Grande Valley defense+1.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-5.0
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 695 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.