← Matchups

West Florida

· 2-0 · power +4.1 · #130
Our numberWEST -9.6 no book has priced this game

North Alabama

· 1-2 · power -7.9 · #274
Our side
MoneylineWEST to win ours 28%
Projected score 33–23 WEST – UNA
2026-11-07 · 7:00 PM Braly Stadium · Florence, AL Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series West Florida lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2018
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
North Alabama Lions Run-heavy · 63% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
West Florida Argonauts
DL A'Khoury Lyde 1 tkl #47 DL
DL Cameron Anderson 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #155 DL
DL Carson Ratliff 11 tkl #322 DL
DL Roderick Webb 1 tkl #392 DL
North Alabama Lions
DB Tae Martin 23 tkl · 4 PD #11 DB
DL Avery Howard 17 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL #20 DL
WR Xavier Johnson 19 rec · 386 yds · 2 TD #14 WR
DL Cayden Adkins 11 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #29 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
West Florida Argonauts +4.1 +2.6 +1.5 #130
North Alabama Lions -7.9 -4.2 -3.7 #274

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
West Florida offense vs North Alabama defense+6.3 pts
North Alabama offense vs West Florida defense-5.7 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.